U.S.News & World Report Tumblelog

Of the last 19 presidential candidates who were ahead in the polls this late in the race, 18 won the election

The Statistical State of the Presidential Race

There has not been any tendency, at least at this stage of the race, for the contest to break toward the challenging candidate. Instead, it’s actually the incumbent-party candidate who has gained ground on average since 1936. On average, the incumbent candidate added 4.6 percentage points between the late September polls and his actual Election Day result, whereas the challenger gained 2.5 percentage points.