Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Why Romney is having a hard time placing Florida firmly in his column
Why Florida Remains So Close
With Romney all but assured to make enough gains to cover Obama’s modest 2.8 point win, Obama’s path to victory requires him to compensate for losses by capitalizing on demographic changes, and particularly Florida’s growing black and non-Cuban Hispanic populations. Voter registration numbers show that the white share of Florida’s registered voters declined from 69 percent to 66.5 percent over the last four years. More than 150,000 more African Americans are registered than four years ago and the number of registered Hispanics increased by 300,000. The number of registered Hispanic Democrats increased by 131,000 compared to just 30,000 for Republicans. If Obama can turnout these newly registered voters, it could go quite a ways toward making up for losses elsewhere.
Simon Owens is an assistant managing editor at U.S. News & World Report. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook, or Google+. Email him at firstname.lastname@example.org